Deloitte publishes its predictions for the coming year: Two tablets and cheap smartphone adoption


Deloitte has released its Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions report for the year ahead.

And the research firm reckons that while 2012 is likely to see continued economic pressures in the downward direction, consumer spending on smartphones and tablets is going to hit record numbers once again. Even when it comes to more expensive consumer tech such as televisions, Deloitte is cautiously optimistic with a declaration of likely “modest growth”, but with sales to be particularly “robust” in developing nations.
Among the predictions for next year, the company is expecting 2012 to be the year in which some tablet owners double up. It estimates that 5% of tablet purchases in 2012 will be made by those who already own an iPad or Android slate. With the Kindle Fire likely driving a lot of two tablet households, we’d imagine.
Indeed, Deloitte reckons that 7 inch tablets will sell in greater numbers to those who already own a 10 inch model, as they might be looking for something a bit more portable. 5% might not sound like a large amount, but Deloitte notes that the tablet market is still in its infancy – just three years old – and multi-market penetration of a device usually takes far longer than such a short period.
For example it took several decades for households to take on a second TV. And it took over ten years before more than 5% of homes had two computers or mobile phones. When it comes to smartphones, Deloitte predicts the rise of the cheap model. By the end of 2012, over 500 million budget smartphones costing under $100 will be in use across the globe (up from 200 million at the end of 2011).
Such budget handsets will represent 20% of all mobile shipments this year, the company claims. Deloitte also observed that the SSD will come more to the fore in 2012, even in computers where the HDD is still the mainstay. By the end of the year, 15% of notebooks are expected to use SSDs, four times more than in 2010.